The US market for HVAC equipment and service will surpass $140 billion by 2027, but growth is not evenly distributed at all. If you are partnered with a professional Market Research consulting firm, you will be riding the exact waves that matters, while others are fighting over the scraps.
- Heat Pumps: From Niche to Default
Thanks to rebates up to $8,000 under the Inflation Reduction Act and utility incentives, heat pumps now appear in 57% of new single-family specifications and 40% of replacement jobs in cold-climate states. Market research firms layering rebate redemptions, building permits, and dealer inventory data can forecast neighborhood-level demand with stunning accuracy. Contractors who pre-purchase equipment and train technicians six to nine months early are booking 2026 at 2025 pricing and enjoying 95 % appointment show rates.
- Indoor Air Quality as the New Profit Center
Post-pandemic awareness refuses to fade. Homeowners replacing 15+ year-old systems are 3.1 times more likely to add whole-home filtration, bipolar ionization, or ERV systems when shown localized pollen, wildfire smoke, and mold-risk data. Companies that invested in air-quality testing kits and simple one-page reports (validated by consumer testing through a market research company) are adding $3,000 – $7,000 to the average replacement ticket with 80% attachment rates.
- Ductless Mini-Splits in Boomer and Millennial Homes
The explosion of 1940s–1980s housing stock changing hands has created a ductless gold rush. A market research company cross-referencing county property records with owner age and income can identify entire subdivisions where conversion potential exceeds 70 %. Targeted Facebook and Nextdoor campaigns in these zones routinely deliver cost-per-booked-call under $35.
- Labor Intelligence That Actually Works
With technician shortages still severe, owners who commission anonymous compensation surveys through a market research company gain priceless leverage. One Midwest firm discovered they were paying 18 % below market for licensed techs with CDL. A single 22 % raise plus better benefits cut turnover from 41 % to 11 % in one year and let them raise service rates 12 % without pushback.
- Service Agreements 2.0
Traditional twice-a-year tune-up plans are losing ground to “Healthy Home” memberships that bundle HVAC, IAQ monitoring, plumbing inspections, and priority scheduling. Acceptance rates jump from 24 % to 68 % when pricing and benefits are tested and refined quarterly using real customer surveys.
Bottom Line
HVAC growth in 2025–2027 is not a rising tide that lifts all trucks equally. It is a series of precise, fast-moving currents: $8,000 heat-pump rebates expiring in key states by late 2026, utility smart-thermostat incentives, wildfire-smoke IAQ surges in the West, and a tidal wave of early-2000s systems failing simultaneously in specific subdivisions.
The contractors winning biggest aren’t working harder—they’re working smarter with data no one else has. They secured equipment six months early, cross-trained techs on high-margin IAQ add-ons, and raised rates 14 % after discovering customers value health over price.
Everyone else is still reacting, discounting, and waiting on back-ordered parts. The gap is now measured in millions, not percentage points.
